Observance Daily What day is today, and why are we celebrating it?
On November 2, 1948, Harry S. Truman narrowly won re-election as President of the United States, defeating the Republican challenger Thomas E. Dewey in an election that produced one of the most famous headlines in the history of journalism — “Dewey Defeats Truman.” The headline was wrong, and the photograph of a grinning Truman holding up the offending front page the next day became one of the most enduring images of American political history.
Almost nobody expected Truman to win. The president had taken office under the darkest of circumstances, becoming president upon the death of Franklin D. Roosevelt in April 1945. He inherited a nation at war and then had to guide it into an uncertain peace. By 1948, his approval ratings were low, his own Democratic Party was divided, and the polls pointed confidently to a Dewey victory. The Chicago Daily Tribune was so certain of the outcome that it printed its headline before the results were final.
An unlikely president
Harry Truman had never been expected to become president. Roosevelt’s vice president, he was thrust into the highest office when FDR died in April 1945, near the end of the Second World War. Truman made the momentous decisions of the war’s final months and the early Cold War that followed, but he never commanded the broad popular adoration that Roosevelt had enjoyed. To many voters, he seemed an accidental president — a Missouri politician out of his depth in a job that demanded greatness.
The 1948 campaign unfolded against this backdrop of doubt. Truman’s approval was low, and his party was split by internal divisions. The Democrats faced breakaway candidacies, and the conventional wisdom held that the presidency was the Republicans’ to lose. Thomas E. Dewey, the governor of New York and the Republican nominee, ran a cautious, confident campaign that seemed designed to protect a lead rather than win one.
The polls that got it wrong
The polling of 1948 is remembered as one of the great failures in the history of political forecasting. Poll after poll showed Dewey comfortably ahead, and the press corps largely accepted the outcome as settled. Some polling firms stopped their surveys weeks before election day, assuming the result was beyond doubt. The confidence was so complete that the Chicago Daily Tribune, facing an early deadline, went to press with a banner headline declaring “Dewey Defeats Truman.”
But Truman had been running an extraordinarily energetic campaign. He travelled the country by train, speaking directly to voters in small towns and big cities, hammering away at a Republican-controlled Congress he dubbed the “do-nothing Congress.” The strategy energised his supporters and chipped away at the assumption of defeat. When the votes were counted, Truman had won narrowly — one of the great comebacks in American electoral history.
“Dewey Defeats Truman”
The Tribune’s erroneous headline has lived on as a symbol of journalistic overreach and the perils of calling an election before the votes are counted. The day after the election, Truman was photographed holding up a copy of the front page, smiling broadly. The image — the victorious president brandishing the newspaper that had declared him the loser — is one of the most reproduced photographs of the twentieth century.
The photograph endures because it captures a perfect moment of comeuppance: the experts were wrong, the polls were wrong, the newspapers were wrong, and the man they had written off was laughing. It is a reminder that elections are decided by voters, not by predictions.
Why the 1948 election matters
The Truman upset of 1948 is still cited whenever the polls appear to be pointing one way with great confidence. It changed how polling was conducted and how journalists covered elections, and it remains the classic example of the underdog victory in American politics. Truman’s comeback showed that a vigorous campaign and a clear message can overcome even the most daunting deficits.
Truman went on to serve a full second term, presiding over the early Cold War years. But it is the night of November 2, 1948 — and the morning after — that defines his legend. The man nobody expected to win had won, and he made sure the world saw him enjoying it.
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 1948 US presidential election?
Harry S. Truman narrowly won re-election on November 2, 1948, defeating Republican Thomas E. Dewey.
What was the “Dewey Defeats Truman” headline?
The Chicago Daily Tribune printed a banner headline declaring Dewey the winner before the results were final. It was wrong — Truman won.
Why did the polls get 1948 wrong?
Polls showed Dewey comfortably ahead, and some firms stopped polling weeks early, assuming the outcome was settled. Truman’s energetic late campaign closed the gap.
How did Truman become president in the first place?
He was Franklin D. Roosevelt’s vice president and succeeded to the presidency on FDR’s death in April 1945.
What is the famous Truman photograph?
The day after the election, Truman was photographed holding up the Tribune’s “Dewey Defeats Truman” front page and smiling — one of the most iconic images in American political history.
See also: November 2 Holidays, Observances and History.